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จำนวนคนประท้วงในกรุงเทพ มีกี่คนกันแน่? (คำตอบจาก Bangkok Post)




จำนวนคนประท้วงในกรุงเทพ มีกี่คนกันแน่?

วันนี้ มีบทความนี้ในหนังสือพิมพ์ Bangkok Post ซึ่งน่าจะเป็นคำตอบได้พอสมควร

Were there a million? Or only 59000? 



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Were there a million? Or only 59,000?

A contentious question following the major anti-government rally on Sunday is: Did as many as one million people show up on Ratchadamnoen as claimed by protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban?

  • Published: 26/11/2013 at 12:00 AM
  • Newspaper section: news

The question has resonated in online chatrooms and social media as estimates from government figures and protest groups have varied widely.


Mr Suthep and his fellow former Democrat MPs who organised the rally insisted Sunday's protest had drawn more than one million participants based on the number of people who picked up numbered stickers they handed out at various spots around the protest area.

Red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan, however, rejected Mr Suthep's claim.


Speaking at the red-shirt demonstration at Rajamangala Stadium on Sunday night, Mr Jatuporn said authorities estimated the crowd at Ratchadamnoen to be about 59,000 people.

"That is more than 941,000 people short [of the target]," Mr Jatuporn told his red-shirt supporters.


Metropolitan police spokesman Adul Narongsak estimated the Ratchadamnoen crowd peaked at 82,000 people at 9pm on Sunday. Labour Minister Chalerm Yubamrung gave a larger estimate yesterday saying Sunday's rally could have attracted about 120,000 participants.

The National Security Council put the number significantly higher at 180,000.


Bangkok Post reporters stationed at different roads and entry points to Democracy Monument on Sunday confirmed that to the east, the crowd stretched all the way down Ratchadamnoen Klang Road up to Pin Klao Bridge.

The protesters occupied about half of the ground at Sanam Luang, some fanning out towards Ratchadamnoen Nai and Atsadang Road. On the other side of Democracy Monument, the crowd packed Ratchadamnoen Klang Avenue all the way before starting to thin out at the middle of Ratchadamnoen Nok Avenue, where a police line is located.


A conventional method to estimate the size of a crowd is to base it on the ground area. Usually, a ratio of three people per square metre is used in the case of crowds of protesters.

If the crowd is not tight, with some walking space, then a ratio of two people per square metre is used. According to official figures, Ratchadamnoen Klang Avenue covers an area of 50,400 sq m (a length of 1,200m and a width of 42m.)


The part that loops around Sanam Luang covers an area of 12,600 sq m (a length of 525m and a width of 24m.)

As for the Ratchadamnoen Nok part, since the protesters occupied about half the avenue, the area in question is estimated to be 26,550 sq m (half the avenue's length of 737.5m by its width of 36m.)


This means the areas estimated to have been occupied by the protesters total about 89,550 sq m. Based on the three people per square metre formula, the number of protesters at Ratchadamnoen Avenue on Sunday would have been about 268,650 people. Sanam Luang, meanwhile, has an area of about 118,400 sq m. Since demonstrators were estimated to have occupied only about half the area, it can be calculated that between 118,400 to 177,600 people could have been there.

This would put the total number of protesters at between 387,050 and 446,250.


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